Library · Frameworks

Decision frameworks.

Battle-tested mental models for thinking through hard calls. Pick one when you feel stuck — DJ can walk you through any of them in a conversation.

4
frameworks
4
categories
~5 min
avg. walkthrough
4 entries
01Reversibility

One-way vs. two-way doors

Sort decisions by how reversible they are, then match your speed and rigor to the cost of being wrong.

Popularized by Jeff Bezos~4 min
How to run it
  1. 1State the decision and what "wrong" would look like.
  2. 2Ask: can this be reversed, and at what cost?
  3. 3If two-way (cheap to undo) — decide fast, learn from the result.
  4. 4If one-way (costly or permanent) — slow down, gather more, pre-mortem it.
When to reach for itA decision feels heavy but you can't say why. Test whether you can actually undo it.
02Uncertainty

Expected value & probabilities

Force vague hunches into explicit probabilities and payoffs, then compare options on weighted outcomes — not vibes.

Decision theory~7 min
How to run it
  1. 1List each option's possible outcomes.
  2. 2Assign a probability to each (it's fine to be rough).
  3. 3Estimate the payoff — good and bad — of each outcome.
  4. 4Multiply, sum, and compare. Then sanity-check against your gut.
When to reach for itYou're choosing between options with different odds and different stakes.
03Tradeoffs

The 10/10/10 rule

Stress-test a choice against three time horizons to separate momentary emotion from lasting consequence.

Suzy Welch~3 min
How to run it
  1. 1How will you feel about this in 10 minutes?
  2. 2How about in 10 months?
  3. 3And in 10 years?
  4. 4Notice which horizon is driving you — and whether it should be.
When to reach for itEmotion is running high and you can't tell if it's a big deal or a passing one.
04Long-term

Pre-mortem

Imagine the decision has already failed, then work backward to find the risks worth mitigating now.

Gary Klein~5 min
How to run it
  1. 1Fast-forward: assume it's a year later and this failed.
  2. 2Write the story of how it went wrong.
  3. 3Pull out the top 2–3 causes you can influence today.
  4. 4Build a mitigation for each into the plan.
When to reach for itYou're committed to a plan and want to pressure-test it before you're locked in.

Frameworks give you the scaffolding.
DJ keeps you honest inside it.

Start your first decision →